Demanda de aguacate mexicano en EUA. Relación de equilibrio de corto y largo plazo y contagio de volatilidad de mercados Demand for Mexican avocados in the USA: Short- and long-run equilibrium relationships and market volatility spillover
Article Sidebar
Publicado
oct 19, 2026
##plugins.pubIds.doi.readerDisplayName##
https://doi.org/10.30878/ces.v33n0a57
Main Article Content
Renato Francisco González Sánchez
http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0737-2838
Víctor Hugo Torres Preciado
http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0501-0913
http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0737-2838
Víctor Hugo Torres Preciado
http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0501-0913
Resumen
Se analizan los determinantes de la demanda de aguacate Hass mexicano en los EUA, así como el contagio de volatilidad de mercados locales en México y de exportación de aguacate con la inseguridad. Se emplean modelos de series de tiempo como el ARDL y el MGARCH-BEKK. La demanda del aguacate mexicano aumenta con la reducción del tipo de cambio y con el aumento del ingreso per cápita real del consumidor de EUA. El aguacate de República Dominicana es un producto complementario con el mexicano en ese mercado. El contagio de volatilidad de mercados se observa principalmente en la volatilidad persistente entre los mercados de aguacate mexicano y la variable de inseguridad en México.
Article Details
Como citar
GONZÁLEZ SÁNCHEZ, Renato Francisco; TORRES PRECIADO, Víctor Hugo.
Demanda de aguacate mexicano en EUA. Relación de equilibrio de corto y largo plazo y contagio de volatilidad de mercados.
CIENCIA ergo-sum, [S.l.], v. 33, oct. 2026.
ISSN 2395-8782.
Disponible en: <https://cienciaergosum.uaemex.mx/article/view/25358>. Fecha de acceso: 07 nov. 2026
doi: https://doi.org/10.30878/ces.v33n0a57.
Sección
Ciencias sociales
Esta obra está bajo licencia internacional Creative Commons Reconocimiento-NoComercial-SinObrasDerivadas 4.0.
Citas
liyu, A. J., & Ismail, N. W. (2017). Food imports and exchange rate: the application of dynamic cointegration framework. Malaysian Journal of Mathematical Sciences, 11, 101-114.
Ambrozek, C., Saitone, T., & Sexton, R. (2019). Price elasticities of demand for fresh Hass avocados in the United States. Concepts, estimation, and applications. Mission Viejo: Hass Avocado Board. https://hassavocadoboard.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Hass-Avocado-Board-Price-Elasticities-of-Demand-or-Fresh-Hass-Avocados-2019.pdf
Arciniegas, C. (2024). The guacamole curse: Avocados, crime, and violence in Mexico. Working Papers SES. N. 537. https://folia.unifr.ch/global/documents/330612
Banco de México. (2024). Sistema de Información Económica. https://www.banxico.org.mx/SieInternet/
Boffelli, S., & Urga, G. (2016). Financial Econometrics Using Stata. USA: Stata Press.
Carman, H., & Sexton, R. (2011). Effective marketing of Hass avocados: The impacts of changing trade policy and promotion/information programs. International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, 14(4), 37- 50.
Cavaletto, G. (2015). The avocado market in the United States. VIII Congreso Mundial de la Palta (pp. 463 466). 10 diciembre 2024. https://www.avocadosource.com/WAC8/Section_07/CavalettoGiovanni2015.pdf
Chapa-Cantú, J., Ayala-Gaytán, E., & Medellín-Mendoza. S. (2023). The economic costs of insecurity on businesses in Mexico: A general equilibrium perspective. EconoQuantum, 20(1), 83-99. https://doi.org/10.18381/eq.v20i1.7300
Cho, K., Goldstein, B., Gounaridis, D., & Newell, J. P. (2021). Where does your guacamole come from? Detecting deforestation associated with the export of avocados from Mexico to the United States. Journal of Environmental Management, 278, 111482. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111482
Cruz-López, D. E. (2021). Análisis de la competitividad y ventaja comparativa revelada del aguacate hass de México en el mercado mundial [Tesis]. Universidad Autonoma Chapingo. https://repositorio.chapingo.edu.mx/server/api/core/bitstreams/8561e6ce-137b-4792-bf6b-973988c6c838/content
Data México (2023). Aguacates frescos o secos. Gobierno de Mexico. Gobierno de México. https://www.economia.gob.mx/datamexico/es/profile/product/avocados-fresh-or-dried
Denvir, A., Arima, E., González-Rodríguez, A., & Young, K. R. (2022). Ecological and human dimensions of avocado expansion in Mexico: Towards supply-chain sustainability. Ambio, 51, 152-166. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-021-01538-6
Dogan, E., & Seker, F. (2016). The influence of real output, renewable and non-renewable energy, trade and financial development on carbon emissions in the top renewable energy countries. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 60, 1074-1085. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.02.006
Dube, A. K., Ozkan, B., & Govindasamy, R. (2018). Analyzing the export performance of the horticultural sub-sector in Ethiopia: ARDL bound test cointegration analysis. Horticulturae, 4(34), 1-8. https://doi.org/10.3390/horticulturae4040034
Enders, W. (2015). Applied econometrics time series (4th edition). Wiley. United States of America.
Engle R. F., & Kroner, K. F. (1995). Multivariate simultaneous generalized ARCH. Econometric Theory, 11(1), 122-150.
Erickson, M., & Owen, L. (2024). Blood Avocados? Trade Liberalization and Cartel Violence in Mexico. Comparative Political Studies. https://doi.org/10.1177/00104140241290198
Ertugrul, H. M., & Seven, U. (2021). Dynamic spillover analysis of international and Turkish food prices. International Journal of Financial Economics, 28(2), 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2517
Estancona, C., & Tiscornia, L. (2022). From cocaine to avocados: Criminal market expansion and violence. https://clestancona.wixsite.com/chelseaestancona/research
Evans, E., & Nalampang, S. (2009). Forecasting Price Trends in the U.S. Avocado (Persea americana Mill.) Market. Journal of Food Distribution Research, 40(2), 37-46.
FAO-STAT (2024). Food and agriculture data. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#home
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. (2024). National accounts. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/
Foreign Agricultural Service-USDA. (2024). Global agricultural trade system (Online). https://apps.fas.usda.gov/gats/default.aspx
González-Cobián, M. F., Vázquez-Rueda, L., Ledesma-Hernández, S., & Torres-Chávez, M. (2022). Caracterización de la cadena productiva de aguacate en micro region de Xalisco, Nayarit. Revista de Alimentación contemporánea y Desarrollo Regional, 32(59), 1-25. https://doi.org/10.24836/es.v32i59.1211
González, R. F., & Tinoco, M. A. (2025). Factores que influyen en la demanda y contagio de volatilidad del limón de origen mexicano importado por el mercado de los EUA. Avances en Investigación Agropecuaria, 29, 3-23. http://doi.org/10.53897/RevAIA.25.29.01
González, R. F., & Torres, V. H. (2021). Contagio de volatilidad de precios internacionales de petróleo, urea y maíz. Avances en Investigación Agropecuaria, 27, 84-104. http://doi.org/10.53897/RevAIA.23.27.08
Guo J., & Tanaka, T. (2020) Dynamic transmissions and volatility spillovers between global price and U.S. producer price in agricultural markets. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 13(4), 83. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm13040083
Grandmaison, R., & Frissard-Martinez, P. (2023). Violent and vibrant. Mexico’s avocado boom and organized crime. Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime. The GREENS/EFA in the European Parliament. https://www.greens-efa.eu/files/assets/docs/violent_and_vibrant_mexico___s_avocado_boom_and_organized_crime.pdf
Hatab, A., & Nsabimana, A. (2016). A dynamic analysis of Egyptian orange exports to Russia: A co-integration analysis. Agricultural Economics Review, 17(2), 38-54. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu
Herrera, J. S., & Martinez-Alvarez, C. (2022). Diversifying violence: Mining, export-agriculture, and criminal governance in Mexico. World Development, 151, 105769. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105769
Kripfganz, S., & Schneider, D. C. (2022). ARDL: Estimating autoregressive distributed lag and equilibrium correction models. Tohoku University Research Center for Policy Design. Discussion Paper TUPD-2022-006. https://www2.econ.tohoku.ac.jp/~PDesign/dp.html
Lira-Noriega, A., Soberón, J., & Equihua, J. (2018). Potential invasion of exotic ambrosia beetles Xyleborus glabratus and Euwallacea sp. in Mexico: A major threat for native and cultivated forest ecosystems. Scientific Reports, 8, 10179. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-28517-4
Lopez, J., & Mnatsakanyan, H. (2021). A case study of avocado, berry, and apple trade through NAFTA. The Texas Journal of Agriculture and Natural Resources, 34, 55-74.
Ma, K., & Diao, G. (2017). Study on spillover effect between international soybean market and China’s domestic soybean market. Ensayos sobre Política Económica, 35, 260-266. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.espe.2017.11.003
Madslien, S. (2020). Are avocados the blood diamonds of Mexico? An empirical study on how increasing demand for Mexican avocados is related to cartel violence (Master thesis). Bergen: Norwegian School of Economics. https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2737211
Mora, J. J., Zamudio, A. y Fuentes, H. J. (2014). Volatilidad e interdependencia en los precios agrícolas a partir de un modelo GARCH multivariado. Análisis Económico, 72(29), 35-56.
Nazlioglu, S., & Erdem, E. (2011). Exchange rates and Turkish fresh fruits and vegetables trade with the EU countries: bilateral trade data analysis. Journal of International Food & Agribusiness Marketing, 23, 93-109. https://doi.org/10.1080/08974438.2011.534043
Nicholson, W. (1998). Microeconomic theory. Basic principles and extensions (17th ed.). Florida: The Dryden Press.
Nzaku, K., Houston, J., & Fonsah, E. (2012). A Dynamic Application of the AIDS Model to Import Demand for Tropical Fresh Fruits in the USA. 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126721. International Association of Agricultural Economists. https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.126721
Obi, A., Ndou, P., & Peter, B. (2013). Assessing the impact of exchange rate volatility on the competitiveness of South Africa’s agricultural exports. Journal of Agricultural Science, 5(10), 227-250. https://doi.org/10.5539/jas.v5n10p227
Ogunjobi, J. O., Oladipo, O. A., Eseyin, O., Opaola, O., & Aransiola, I. J. (2022). Exchange rate and agricultural exports: evidence from Nigeria (1981-2019). International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation, 9(4), 89-101.
Ornelas, R. G. (2018). Organized crime in Michoacan: Rent-seeking activities in the avocado export market. Politics & Policy, 46(5), 759-789. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12270
Ozdemir, F. D., Kaymak, H. C., & Aksoy, A. (2022). Prediction of conditional variance volatility of real prices of almond, hazelnut, and pistachio by the diagonal BEKK-GARCH (1.1) equation model. Scientific Papers Series Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture & Rural Development, 22(4), 517-526.
Pachiyappan, D., Ansari, Y., Alam, M. S., Thoudam, P., Alagirisamy, K, & Manigandan, P. (2021). Short and long-run causal effects of CO2 emissions, energy use, GDP and population growth: Evidence from India using the ARDL and VECM approaches. Energies, 14(24), 8333. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14248333
Panagiotou, D. (2015). Volatility spillover effects in the extra virgin olive oil markets of the Mediterranean. International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics, 3(3), 1-11. https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.208851
Pattak, D. C., Tahrim, F., Salehi, M., Voumik, L. C., Akter, S., Ridwan, M., Sadowska, B., & Zimon, G. (2023). The Driving Factors of Italy’s CO2 Emissions Based on the STIRPAT Model: ARDL, FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR Approaches. Energies, 16, 5845. https://doi.org/10.3390/en16155845
Paul, R. K., Saxena, R., Chaurasia, S., Zeeshanan, & Rana, S. (2015). Examining export volatility, structural breaks in price volatility and linkages between domestic and export prices of onion in India. Agricultural Economics Research Review, 28, 101-116. https://doi.org/10.5958/0974-0279.2015.00026.9
Perloff, J. M. (2014). Microeconomics with calculus (3rd ed.). Boston: Pearson.
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 289-326.
Rezetis, A. N., & Pachis, D. N. (2020). Investigating the price volatility transmission mechanisms of selected fresh vegetable chains in Greece. Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies, 10(5), 587-611. https://doi.org/10.1108/JADEE-12-2019-0209
Rosetti, N., Seido, M., & Faria, J. L. (2017) A behavioral analysis of the volatility of interbank interest rates in developed and emerging countries. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, 22(42), 99-128. https://doi.org/10.1108/JEFAS-02-2017-0033
Sáens-Ceja, J., & Pérez-Salicrup, D. (2021). Avocado Cover expansion in the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve, Central Mexico. Conservation, 1, 299-310. https://doi.org/10.3390/ conservation1040023
Sánchez-Torres, Y., Matus-Gardea, J. A., García-Salazar, J. A., Martínez-Damián, M. Á., y Gómez-Cruz, M. Á. (2011). Estimación de la demanda de importaciones de limón persa (Citrus latifolia Tanaka) en Estados Unidos procedentes de México (1994-2008). Tropical and Subtropical Agroecosystems, 14(3), 819-827
Sarihan, A. Y. (2024). A study on the effect of imported wheat prices on Türkiye’s pasta exports: ARDL approach. Ekonomika, 103(2), 45-65. https://doi.org/10.15388/Ekon.2024.104.2.3
Secretariado Ejecutivo del Sistema Nacional de Seguridad Pública. (2024). Datos abiertos de incidencia delictiva. https://www.gob.mx/sesnsp/acciones-y-programas/datos-abiertos-de-incidencia-delictiva
Sidhoum, A., & Serra, T. (2016). Volatility spillovers in the Spanish food marketing chain: The case of tomato. Agribusiness, 32(1), 45-63. https://doi.org/10.1002/agr.21418
SNIIN (Sistema Nacional de Información e integración de Mercados). (2024). Mercados nacionales. Secretaría de Economía. http://www.economia-sniim.gob.mx/nuevo/
Sommaruga, R., & Eldridge, H. M. (2020). Avocado production: Water footprint and socio-economic implications. EuroChoices, 20(2), 48-53. https://doi.org/10.1111/1746-692X.12289
Vargas-Canales, J. M., Carbajal-Flores, G., Bustamante-Lara, T. I., Camacho-Vera, J. H., Fresnedo-Ramírez, J., Palacios-Rangel, M. I., & Rodríguez-Haros, B. (2020). Impact of the market on the specialization and competitiveness of avocado production in Mexico. International Journal of Fruit Science, 20(sup3), S1942-S1958. https://doi.org/10.1080/15538362.2020.1837711
Williams, G. W., & Hanselka, D. (2022). Report to the Mexican Hass Avocado Import Association (MHAIA) and Asociación de Productores y Empacadores Exportadores de Aguacate de México (APEAM, A.C.). 2022 update: The U.S. economic benefits of Hass avocado imports from Mexico. AFCERC & Texas A&M University. https://avocadoinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Report-US-Economic-Benefits-of-Avocado-Imports-from-Mexico-2022-Update.pdf
Wu, D., Xu, Z., & Li, J. (2023). Search data and geodemographics determinants of the avocado sales in the US Markets. Journal of Business and Management, 29(1), 23-56
Zimon, G., Pattak, D. C., Voumik, L. C., Akter, S., Kaya, F., Walasek, R., & Kochanski, K. (2023) The Impact of Fossil Fuels, Renewable Energy, and Nuclear Energy on South Korea’s Environment Based on the STIRPAT Model: ARDL, FMOLS, and CCR Approaches. Energies, 16, 6198. https://doi.org/10.3390/en16176198
Ambrozek, C., Saitone, T., & Sexton, R. (2019). Price elasticities of demand for fresh Hass avocados in the United States. Concepts, estimation, and applications. Mission Viejo: Hass Avocado Board. https://hassavocadoboard.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Hass-Avocado-Board-Price-Elasticities-of-Demand-or-Fresh-Hass-Avocados-2019.pdf
Arciniegas, C. (2024). The guacamole curse: Avocados, crime, and violence in Mexico. Working Papers SES. N. 537. https://folia.unifr.ch/global/documents/330612
Banco de México. (2024). Sistema de Información Económica. https://www.banxico.org.mx/SieInternet/
Boffelli, S., & Urga, G. (2016). Financial Econometrics Using Stata. USA: Stata Press.
Carman, H., & Sexton, R. (2011). Effective marketing of Hass avocados: The impacts of changing trade policy and promotion/information programs. International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, 14(4), 37- 50.
Cavaletto, G. (2015). The avocado market in the United States. VIII Congreso Mundial de la Palta (pp. 463 466). 10 diciembre 2024. https://www.avocadosource.com/WAC8/Section_07/CavalettoGiovanni2015.pdf
Chapa-Cantú, J., Ayala-Gaytán, E., & Medellín-Mendoza. S. (2023). The economic costs of insecurity on businesses in Mexico: A general equilibrium perspective. EconoQuantum, 20(1), 83-99. https://doi.org/10.18381/eq.v20i1.7300
Cho, K., Goldstein, B., Gounaridis, D., & Newell, J. P. (2021). Where does your guacamole come from? Detecting deforestation associated with the export of avocados from Mexico to the United States. Journal of Environmental Management, 278, 111482. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111482
Cruz-López, D. E. (2021). Análisis de la competitividad y ventaja comparativa revelada del aguacate hass de México en el mercado mundial [Tesis]. Universidad Autonoma Chapingo. https://repositorio.chapingo.edu.mx/server/api/core/bitstreams/8561e6ce-137b-4792-bf6b-973988c6c838/content
Data México (2023). Aguacates frescos o secos. Gobierno de Mexico. Gobierno de México. https://www.economia.gob.mx/datamexico/es/profile/product/avocados-fresh-or-dried
Denvir, A., Arima, E., González-Rodríguez, A., & Young, K. R. (2022). Ecological and human dimensions of avocado expansion in Mexico: Towards supply-chain sustainability. Ambio, 51, 152-166. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-021-01538-6
Dogan, E., & Seker, F. (2016). The influence of real output, renewable and non-renewable energy, trade and financial development on carbon emissions in the top renewable energy countries. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 60, 1074-1085. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.02.006
Dube, A. K., Ozkan, B., & Govindasamy, R. (2018). Analyzing the export performance of the horticultural sub-sector in Ethiopia: ARDL bound test cointegration analysis. Horticulturae, 4(34), 1-8. https://doi.org/10.3390/horticulturae4040034
Enders, W. (2015). Applied econometrics time series (4th edition). Wiley. United States of America.
Engle R. F., & Kroner, K. F. (1995). Multivariate simultaneous generalized ARCH. Econometric Theory, 11(1), 122-150.
Erickson, M., & Owen, L. (2024). Blood Avocados? Trade Liberalization and Cartel Violence in Mexico. Comparative Political Studies. https://doi.org/10.1177/00104140241290198
Ertugrul, H. M., & Seven, U. (2021). Dynamic spillover analysis of international and Turkish food prices. International Journal of Financial Economics, 28(2), 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2517
Estancona, C., & Tiscornia, L. (2022). From cocaine to avocados: Criminal market expansion and violence. https://clestancona.wixsite.com/chelseaestancona/research
Evans, E., & Nalampang, S. (2009). Forecasting Price Trends in the U.S. Avocado (Persea americana Mill.) Market. Journal of Food Distribution Research, 40(2), 37-46.
FAO-STAT (2024). Food and agriculture data. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#home
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. (2024). National accounts. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/
Foreign Agricultural Service-USDA. (2024). Global agricultural trade system (Online). https://apps.fas.usda.gov/gats/default.aspx
González-Cobián, M. F., Vázquez-Rueda, L., Ledesma-Hernández, S., & Torres-Chávez, M. (2022). Caracterización de la cadena productiva de aguacate en micro region de Xalisco, Nayarit. Revista de Alimentación contemporánea y Desarrollo Regional, 32(59), 1-25. https://doi.org/10.24836/es.v32i59.1211
González, R. F., & Tinoco, M. A. (2025). Factores que influyen en la demanda y contagio de volatilidad del limón de origen mexicano importado por el mercado de los EUA. Avances en Investigación Agropecuaria, 29, 3-23. http://doi.org/10.53897/RevAIA.25.29.01
González, R. F., & Torres, V. H. (2021). Contagio de volatilidad de precios internacionales de petróleo, urea y maíz. Avances en Investigación Agropecuaria, 27, 84-104. http://doi.org/10.53897/RevAIA.23.27.08
Guo J., & Tanaka, T. (2020) Dynamic transmissions and volatility spillovers between global price and U.S. producer price in agricultural markets. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 13(4), 83. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm13040083
Grandmaison, R., & Frissard-Martinez, P. (2023). Violent and vibrant. Mexico’s avocado boom and organized crime. Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime. The GREENS/EFA in the European Parliament. https://www.greens-efa.eu/files/assets/docs/violent_and_vibrant_mexico___s_avocado_boom_and_organized_crime.pdf
Hatab, A., & Nsabimana, A. (2016). A dynamic analysis of Egyptian orange exports to Russia: A co-integration analysis. Agricultural Economics Review, 17(2), 38-54. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu
Herrera, J. S., & Martinez-Alvarez, C. (2022). Diversifying violence: Mining, export-agriculture, and criminal governance in Mexico. World Development, 151, 105769. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105769
Kripfganz, S., & Schneider, D. C. (2022). ARDL: Estimating autoregressive distributed lag and equilibrium correction models. Tohoku University Research Center for Policy Design. Discussion Paper TUPD-2022-006. https://www2.econ.tohoku.ac.jp/~PDesign/dp.html
Lira-Noriega, A., Soberón, J., & Equihua, J. (2018). Potential invasion of exotic ambrosia beetles Xyleborus glabratus and Euwallacea sp. in Mexico: A major threat for native and cultivated forest ecosystems. Scientific Reports, 8, 10179. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-28517-4
Lopez, J., & Mnatsakanyan, H. (2021). A case study of avocado, berry, and apple trade through NAFTA. The Texas Journal of Agriculture and Natural Resources, 34, 55-74.
Ma, K., & Diao, G. (2017). Study on spillover effect between international soybean market and China’s domestic soybean market. Ensayos sobre Política Económica, 35, 260-266. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.espe.2017.11.003
Madslien, S. (2020). Are avocados the blood diamonds of Mexico? An empirical study on how increasing demand for Mexican avocados is related to cartel violence (Master thesis). Bergen: Norwegian School of Economics. https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2737211
Mora, J. J., Zamudio, A. y Fuentes, H. J. (2014). Volatilidad e interdependencia en los precios agrícolas a partir de un modelo GARCH multivariado. Análisis Económico, 72(29), 35-56.
Nazlioglu, S., & Erdem, E. (2011). Exchange rates and Turkish fresh fruits and vegetables trade with the EU countries: bilateral trade data analysis. Journal of International Food & Agribusiness Marketing, 23, 93-109. https://doi.org/10.1080/08974438.2011.534043
Nicholson, W. (1998). Microeconomic theory. Basic principles and extensions (17th ed.). Florida: The Dryden Press.
Nzaku, K., Houston, J., & Fonsah, E. (2012). A Dynamic Application of the AIDS Model to Import Demand for Tropical Fresh Fruits in the USA. 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126721. International Association of Agricultural Economists. https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.126721
Obi, A., Ndou, P., & Peter, B. (2013). Assessing the impact of exchange rate volatility on the competitiveness of South Africa’s agricultural exports. Journal of Agricultural Science, 5(10), 227-250. https://doi.org/10.5539/jas.v5n10p227
Ogunjobi, J. O., Oladipo, O. A., Eseyin, O., Opaola, O., & Aransiola, I. J. (2022). Exchange rate and agricultural exports: evidence from Nigeria (1981-2019). International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation, 9(4), 89-101.
Ornelas, R. G. (2018). Organized crime in Michoacan: Rent-seeking activities in the avocado export market. Politics & Policy, 46(5), 759-789. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12270
Ozdemir, F. D., Kaymak, H. C., & Aksoy, A. (2022). Prediction of conditional variance volatility of real prices of almond, hazelnut, and pistachio by the diagonal BEKK-GARCH (1.1) equation model. Scientific Papers Series Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture & Rural Development, 22(4), 517-526.
Pachiyappan, D., Ansari, Y., Alam, M. S., Thoudam, P., Alagirisamy, K, & Manigandan, P. (2021). Short and long-run causal effects of CO2 emissions, energy use, GDP and population growth: Evidence from India using the ARDL and VECM approaches. Energies, 14(24), 8333. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14248333
Panagiotou, D. (2015). Volatility spillover effects in the extra virgin olive oil markets of the Mediterranean. International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics, 3(3), 1-11. https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.208851
Pattak, D. C., Tahrim, F., Salehi, M., Voumik, L. C., Akter, S., Ridwan, M., Sadowska, B., & Zimon, G. (2023). The Driving Factors of Italy’s CO2 Emissions Based on the STIRPAT Model: ARDL, FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR Approaches. Energies, 16, 5845. https://doi.org/10.3390/en16155845
Paul, R. K., Saxena, R., Chaurasia, S., Zeeshanan, & Rana, S. (2015). Examining export volatility, structural breaks in price volatility and linkages between domestic and export prices of onion in India. Agricultural Economics Research Review, 28, 101-116. https://doi.org/10.5958/0974-0279.2015.00026.9
Perloff, J. M. (2014). Microeconomics with calculus (3rd ed.). Boston: Pearson.
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 289-326.
Rezetis, A. N., & Pachis, D. N. (2020). Investigating the price volatility transmission mechanisms of selected fresh vegetable chains in Greece. Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies, 10(5), 587-611. https://doi.org/10.1108/JADEE-12-2019-0209
Rosetti, N., Seido, M., & Faria, J. L. (2017) A behavioral analysis of the volatility of interbank interest rates in developed and emerging countries. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, 22(42), 99-128. https://doi.org/10.1108/JEFAS-02-2017-0033
Sáens-Ceja, J., & Pérez-Salicrup, D. (2021). Avocado Cover expansion in the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve, Central Mexico. Conservation, 1, 299-310. https://doi.org/10.3390/ conservation1040023
Sánchez-Torres, Y., Matus-Gardea, J. A., García-Salazar, J. A., Martínez-Damián, M. Á., y Gómez-Cruz, M. Á. (2011). Estimación de la demanda de importaciones de limón persa (Citrus latifolia Tanaka) en Estados Unidos procedentes de México (1994-2008). Tropical and Subtropical Agroecosystems, 14(3), 819-827
Sarihan, A. Y. (2024). A study on the effect of imported wheat prices on Türkiye’s pasta exports: ARDL approach. Ekonomika, 103(2), 45-65. https://doi.org/10.15388/Ekon.2024.104.2.3
Secretariado Ejecutivo del Sistema Nacional de Seguridad Pública. (2024). Datos abiertos de incidencia delictiva. https://www.gob.mx/sesnsp/acciones-y-programas/datos-abiertos-de-incidencia-delictiva
Sidhoum, A., & Serra, T. (2016). Volatility spillovers in the Spanish food marketing chain: The case of tomato. Agribusiness, 32(1), 45-63. https://doi.org/10.1002/agr.21418
SNIIN (Sistema Nacional de Información e integración de Mercados). (2024). Mercados nacionales. Secretaría de Economía. http://www.economia-sniim.gob.mx/nuevo/
Sommaruga, R., & Eldridge, H. M. (2020). Avocado production: Water footprint and socio-economic implications. EuroChoices, 20(2), 48-53. https://doi.org/10.1111/1746-692X.12289
Vargas-Canales, J. M., Carbajal-Flores, G., Bustamante-Lara, T. I., Camacho-Vera, J. H., Fresnedo-Ramírez, J., Palacios-Rangel, M. I., & Rodríguez-Haros, B. (2020). Impact of the market on the specialization and competitiveness of avocado production in Mexico. International Journal of Fruit Science, 20(sup3), S1942-S1958. https://doi.org/10.1080/15538362.2020.1837711
Williams, G. W., & Hanselka, D. (2022). Report to the Mexican Hass Avocado Import Association (MHAIA) and Asociación de Productores y Empacadores Exportadores de Aguacate de México (APEAM, A.C.). 2022 update: The U.S. economic benefits of Hass avocado imports from Mexico. AFCERC & Texas A&M University. https://avocadoinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Report-US-Economic-Benefits-of-Avocado-Imports-from-Mexico-2022-Update.pdf
Wu, D., Xu, Z., & Li, J. (2023). Search data and geodemographics determinants of the avocado sales in the US Markets. Journal of Business and Management, 29(1), 23-56
Zimon, G., Pattak, D. C., Voumik, L. C., Akter, S., Kaya, F., Walasek, R., & Kochanski, K. (2023) The Impact of Fossil Fuels, Renewable Energy, and Nuclear Energy on South Korea’s Environment Based on the STIRPAT Model: ARDL, FMOLS, and CCR Approaches. Energies, 16, 6198. https://doi.org/10.3390/en16176198